Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.753170 23.647377 25.693676 28.079433 30.798385 33.817047 37.444969
2025-11-02 18.589172 21.141723 24.090031 27.789110 32.366816 37.929589 45.334889
2025-11-09 16.522519 19.445336 23.000292 27.731292 34.005072 42.260692 54.352737
2025-11-16 14.930829 18.043927 21.987316 27.492450 35.230153 46.149610 63.624132
2025-11-23 13.683333 16.893445 21.096869 27.205046 36.232853 49.797334 73.393293
2025-11-30 12.686414 15.945155 20.333631 26.935505 37.137997 53.375474 83.980211
2025-12-07 11.898137 15.190338 19.735145 26.788934 38.147682 57.243155 96.227817
2025-12-14 11.179523 14.462290 19.090454 26.469783 38.791932 60.563206 108.509565
2025-12-21 10.907556 14.334813 19.290935 27.458884 41.733740 68.633620 134.315375
2025-12-28 10.379211 13.791300 18.814299 27.290302 42.604419 72.896862 153.167848
2026-01-04 9.943810 13.351595 18.454583 27.264947 43.714294 77.892017 176.682050
2026-01-11 9.632837 13.074715 18.321155 27.600709 45.548481 84.923894 210.870595
2026-01-18 9.238086 12.651747 17.932776 27.465879 46.471647 90.220307 244.018878
2026-01-25 8.841786 12.203751 17.472573 27.156612 46.996243 94.730302 278.635700
2026-02-01 8.524823 11.861484 17.161471 27.088905 48.026404 100.899221 327.329548
2026-02-08 8.203416 11.493999 16.782153 26.853083 48.649022 106.173363 379.029700
2026-02-15 7.899644 11.138645 16.399670 26.573212 49.128858 111.224063 437.846992
2026-02-22 7.621718 10.811073 16.043972 26.311789 49.613673 116.497548 508.596721
2026-03-01 7.382889 10.535598 15.761535 26.169728 50.367692 122.965814 604.007768
2026-03-08 7.134371 10.232600 15.412674 25.860989 50.661949 128.021174 703.042603
2026-03-15 7.090640 10.266899 15.664414 26.817114 54.376513 147.292430 1037.651013
2026-03-22 6.888127 10.024267 15.400169 26.654151 55.086280 155.281213 1284.124633
2026-03-29 6.716776 9.827081 15.207889 26.629633 56.181880 165.540829 1666.022301